The election result and the decisiveness with which Key has moved to form his Government have been amply covered in the media. However, some observations about the character of both the outgoing and incoming administrations are worth noting, as are the likely policy flashpoints for the administration over the coming Parliamentary term.
The Cabinet
The capacity to calculate and accept risk that Key learned as a trader is a defining feature of his Cabinet appointments. Relegating National's older hands, at the same time as offering face-saving positions, Key has created senior positions for a number of relatively inexperienced MPs. Parliamentary newbie (but no tyro) Stephen Joyce has found challenging homes in Transport and Infrastructure, whilst able second termer Paula Bennett has been allocated social development. Legal savant and workhorse Chris Finlayson is another welcome addition to the front bench as Attorney-General, Treaty Negotiator, and Arts Minister, while former Uruguay negotiator Tim Groser is a wise choice for Trade Minister and climate change negotiator. Much has been thrust on the shoulders of Simon Power, at number four, and he has a demanding role in the Justice and Commerce portfolios. Second term MP, Kate Wilkinson has also made her debut as Labour Minister, reflecting Key's confidence in the hard work she has done as Opposition spokesperson on Labour.
Among the more experienced players, Nick Smith has been rewarded for the hard work he has done in Opposition on the Resource Management Act, climate change and the environment generally. His measured comments on privatisation in his capacity as ACC Minister will also be welcome to those concerned by his sometimes frenetic approach to complex policy in the past. Similarly, Tony Ryall enters the lists in Health and State Services, both difficult portfolios that will call on the generally good political judgment he has shown in opposition.
As well as able to draw on the able, Key has the benefit of a reserve of young MPs such as up-and-comer Nathan Guy to whom Select Committee chairs will be offered as training grounds for later Cabinet appointment. Likely contenders, possibly disappointed by their relegation this time will already have been reassured about their chances when an election oriented shuffle is undertaken in a couple of years.
Proving yet again that a week is a long time in politics, National has partners and prospects where the pundits said they had none.
The Cabinet was sworn in this morning and the shuffle of Ministerial offices will be completed over the weekend.
Agreements for confidence and supply
Balancing the right of the political spectrum with the left, Key has built the basis for a strong alignment of parties as well as a foundation for the 2011 election. The allocation of meaningful portfolios to Hide, Roy, Turia and Sharples, albeit outside Cabinet, is indicative of Key's willingness to offer a real stake in the game. Dunne will continue as Minister of Revenue and Associate Minister of Health. Broadening his focus beyond the New Zealand medicines strategy, Dunne has indicated a commitment to the use of private health providers to clear the backlog in elective surgery, as well as private public partnerships in other areas.
The text of the confidence and supply agreements may be found below.
http://www.national.org.nz/files/agreements/National-UF_agreement.pdf
http://www.national.org.nz/files/agreements/National-Maori_Party_agreement.pdf
http://www.national.org.nz/files/agreements/National-Act_Agreement.pdf
Flashpoints
Even without the global economic crisis National has some potential flashpoints in both policy and political management. Rodney Hide has much he wishes to do in the local government portfolio that may bring him into conflict with National at the many points where his interests rub up against National's. Infrastructure, the Royal Commission for Auckland and the ETS are cases in point.
The foreshore and seabed legislation and freshwater management are other difficult areas that will test relations with ACT and the Māori Party alike. In both instances the opportunity to balance left against right will be limited given to the largely aligned position of ACT and the Māori Party on the question of property rights. National's past pragmatism on the issue will come under strain.
Freshwater management generally promises to be a vexed area and enough to test the relationship between central and local government. The ETS also offers up a minefield as those invested in the current arrangement seek to preserve the status quo.
|